The International 10 - Group A Day Three Matches
The International 10 group stage continues on to day three. I've aggregated all of Group A's matches in a single post.
Refer to the summary table at the top, or scroll down to see match specifics if you want a more comprehensive breakdown.
Predictions and bet suggestions
| Date | Team | Opponent | Odds | Win% | Win% Implied (norm) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-09 02:00AM | Undying | Alliance | 4.02 | 43.35% | 22.47% | Bet 24.59% on UND vs [A] |
| 2021-10-09 02:00AM | Evil Geniuses | OG | 2.3 | 39.39% | 39.21% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-09 02:00AM | Thunder Predator | Virtus.pro | 4.99 | 14.80% | 18.06% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-09 02:00AM | Team Aster | T1 | 2.58 | 33.58% | 34.98% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-09 06:00AM | T1 | Alliance | 3.02 | 33.49% | 29.92% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-09 06:00AM | Undying | OG | 4.98 | 44.00% | 18.11% | Bet 29.94% on UND vs OG |
| 2021-10-09 06:00AM | Team Aster | Invictus Gaming | 2.62 | 34.29% | 34.45% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-09 06:00AM | DRAW | (Evil Geniuses v Thunder Predator) | 2.97 | 42.25% | 30.36% | Bet 12.94% on DRAW vs (EG v ThunderP) |
| 2021-10-09 10:00AM | Undying | T1 | 3.56 | 38.65% | 25.37% | Bet 14.69% on UND vs T1 |
| 2021-10-09 10:00AM | Evil Geniuses | Virtus.pro | 3.21 | 26.52% | 28.09% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-09 10:00AM | Alliance | Invictus Gaming | 3.83 | 23.62% | 23.55% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-09 10:00AM | Thunder Predator | Team Aster | 4.53 | 16.91% | 19.94% | No Bet |
Individual matches
Evil Geniuses v OG
| metric | Evil Geniuses | draw | OG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.3 (+130) | 2.45 (+145) | 3.76 (+276) |
| Implied Win Probability | 43.48% | 40.82% | 26.60% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 39.21% | 36.81% | 23.98% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 39.39% | 42.92% | 17.70% |
| Expected Value | -0.2091 | -0.0711 | -0.5225 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +191 | Bet @ odds > +164 | Bet @ odds > +688 |
Team Aster v T1
| metric | Team Aster | draw | T1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.58 (+158) | 2.39 (+139) | 3.31 (+231) |
| Implied Win Probability | 38.76% | 41.84% | 30.21% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 34.98% | 37.76% | 27.26% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 33.58% | 44.41% | 22.02% |
| Expected Value | -0.2627 | -0.0582 | -0.4368 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +250 | Bet @ odds > +154 | Bet @ odds > +488 |
Undying v Alliance
| metric | Undying | draw | Alliance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 4.02 (+302) | 2.49 (+149) | 2.19 (+119) |
| Implied Win Probability | 24.88% | 40.16% | 45.66% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 22.47% | 36.28% | 41.25% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 43.35% | 41.48% | 15.17% |
| Expected Value | 0.5416 | -0.0916 | -0.7773 |
| Bet Size | Bet 24.59% | Bet @ odds > +174 | Bet @ odds > +883 |
Virtus.pro v Thunder Predator
| metric | Virtus.pro | draw | Thunder Predator |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 1.86 (-116) | 2.69 (+169) | 4.99 (+399) |
| Implied Win Probability | 53.76% | 37.17% | 20.04% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 48.45% | 33.50% | 18.06% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 43.98% | 41.23% | 14.80% |
| Expected Value | -0.2751 | -0.0255 | -0.5111 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +157 | Bet @ odds > +176 | Bet @ odds > +921 |
OG v Undying
| metric | OG | draw | Undying |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 1.98 (-102) | 2.48 (+148) | 4.98 (+398) |
| Implied Win Probability | 50.51% | 40.32% | 20.08% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 45.54% | 36.36% | 18.11% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 14.78% | 41.21% | 44.00% |
| Expected Value | -0.8063 | -0.1019 | 0.9424 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +922 | Bet @ odds > +176 | Bet 29.94% |
Invictus Gaming v Team Aster
| metric | Invictus Gaming | draw | Team Aster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 3.25 (+225) | 2.39 (+139) | 2.62 (+162) |
| Implied Win Probability | 30.77% | 41.84% | 38.17% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 27.78% | 37.77% | 34.45% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 21.44% | 44.27% | 34.29% |
| Expected Value | -0.4656 | -0.0615 | -0.2326 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +508 | Bet @ odds > +155 | Bet @ odds > +241 |
T1 v Alliance
| metric | T1 | draw | Alliance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 3.02 (+202) | 2.25 (+125) | 3.02 (+202) |
| Implied Win Probability | 33.11% | 44.44% | 33.11% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 29.92% | 40.16% | 29.92% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 33.49% | 44.42% | 22.09% |
| Expected Value | -0.1396 | -0.113 | -0.484 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +251 | Bet @ odds > +154 | Bet @ odds > +485 |
Evil Geniuses v Thunder Predator
| metric | Evil Geniuses | draw | Thunder Predator |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 1.65 (-154) | 2.97 (+197) | 6.02 (+502) |
| Implied Win Probability | 60.61% | 33.67% | 16.61% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 54.66% | 30.36% | 14.98% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 41.32% | 42.25% | 16.43% |
| Expected Value | -0.4007 | 0.1064 | -0.3121 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +175 | Bet 12.94% | Bet @ odds > +775 |
Evil Geniuses v Virtus.pro
| metric | Evil Geniuses | draw | Virtus.pro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 3.21 (+221) | 2.38 (+138) | 2.65 (+165) |
| Implied Win Probability | 31.15% | 42.02% | 37.74% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 28.09% | 37.89% | 34.03% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 26.52% | 44.98% | 28.50% |
| Expected Value | -0.3093 | -0.0484 | -0.3773 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +365 | Bet @ odds > +150 | Bet @ odds > +326 |
Invictus Gaming v Alliance
| metric | Invictus Gaming | draw | Alliance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.6 (+160) | 2.16 (+116) | 3.83 (+283) |
| Implied Win Probability | 38.46% | 46.30% | 26.11% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 34.69% | 41.76% | 23.55% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 31.66% | 44.71% | 23.62% |
| Expected Value | -0.3067 | -0.1422 | -0.2868 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +275 | Bet @ odds > +152 | Bet @ odds > +437 |
T1 v Undying
| metric | T1 | draw | Undying |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.42 (+142) | 2.42 (+142) | 3.56 (+256) |
| Implied Win Probability | 41.32% | 41.32% | 28.09% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 37.32% | 37.32% | 25.37% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 18.20% | 43.15% | 38.65% |
| Expected Value | -0.6805 | -0.0768 | 0.198 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +657 | Bet @ odds > +162 | Bet 14.69% |
Team Aster v Thunder Predator
| metric | Team Aster | draw | Thunder Predator |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.13 (+113) | 2.4 (+140) | 4.53 (+353) |
| Implied Win Probability | 46.95% | 41.67% | 22.08% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 42.41% | 37.64% | 19.94% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 40.57% | 42.52% | 16.91% |
| Expected Value | -0.2423 | -0.0996 | -0.4605 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +181 | Bet @ odds > +167 | Bet @ odds > +740 |
You can also find all of these suggestions on our suggested bets page, which will stay up-to-date as the tournament progresses!
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