Dota 2 DPC 2021/22 Tour 1 Simulations and Predictions

Dota 2 DPC 2021/22 Tour 1 Simulations and Predictions

There's been some downtime post-TI (and BTS), but the floodgates of Dota 2 matches have opened back up with the start of the DPC season! With six regions, two divisions per region, and eight teams per division, some quick math puts that at... a loooot of Dota to be played.

I'll be keeping up with all of it on my daily-updated suggested bets page, but this post will give you a rundown of what to expect in each region.


The DPC Format

I won't give a full explanation of the format; I'd suggest you simply read through the full rules, if you're interested, here:

Dota Pro Circuit 2021-22
The format for the 2021-2022 season remains largely the same as the previous season. However, instead of two tours, this season will have three tours.As in previous season, Roster Locks are implemented from the start of each Regional League until the end. Rosters will unlock at the conclusion of th…

The important takeaway, though, is that in each "tour" (aka season), each division plays a single round robin of best-of-three matches. This means I get to simulate the results of this, just like with any other group stage.

At the end of each tour is a Major, and tournaments are always fun, but the first one won't be until at least February in all likelihood, so we'll revisit that in the future.


Simulations

For each division, I simulated the results of the round robin, using my model's predictions of each head-to-head matchup. Each division was simulated 20000 times, with each team playing each other team once for a total of seven games per team.

There are a lot of divisions here, so I'll just quickly skim through them with some summary stats on which teams I would expect to perform well.

Keep in mind that the records I'm presenting are match win/loss records, not game win/loss records - since each match is best-of-three, the total number of games may vary for each team.

If you want more in-depth data on any specific group, just let me know! I've simplified this post since there would be an insane amount of content otherwise (normally, I would do a full analytical post for each group, but twelve posts seems excessive), but am happy to split things out if there's interest!


Western Europe

Division I

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
Team Secret 4.49124 2.50876
Tundra Esports 4.30994 2.69006
Nigma Galaxy 3.95966 3.04034
Team Liquid 3.9015 3.0985
Alliance 3.57062 3.42938
Team Tickles 3.29446 3.70554
OG 2.46038 4.53962
COOLGUYS 2.0122 4.9878

Placement probabilities (top six teams avoid elimination):

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
Team Secret 28.12% 3rd 94.48%
Tundra Esports 23.16% 3rd 92.60%
Nigma Galaxy 15.52% 4th 87.92%
Team Liquid 14.36% 4th 87.50%
Alliance 9.70% 4th 81.44%
Team Tickles 6.60% 5th 74.78%
OG 1.83% 7th 48.34%
COOLGUYS 0.71% 7th 32.94%

Division II

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
Entity 5.07622 1.92378
Chicken Fighters 4.96558 2.03442
Brame 4.17326 2.82674
Into The Breach 3.72028 3.27972
CHILLAX 3.5452 3.4548
Team Bald Reborn 2.84024 4.15976
Ghost Frogs 1.97088 5.02912
No Bounty Hunter 1.70834 5.29166

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
Entity 37.88% 2nd 98.88%
Chicken Fighters 33.50% 2nd 98.41%
Brame 13.51% 3rd 93.97%
Into The Breach 7.30% 4th 88.80%
CHILLAX 5.62% 4th 86.03%
Team Bald Reborn 1.71% 6th 69.34%
Ghost Frogs 0.34% 7th 36.65%
No Bounty Hunter 0.15% 7th 27.92%


Eastern Europe

Division I

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
Team Spirit 5.619 1.381
HellRaisers 4.01975 2.98025
Natus Vincere 3.8091 3.1909
Virtus.pro 3.54715 3.45285
PuckChamp 2.94125 4.05875
Team Unique 2.77095 4.22905
AS Monaco Gambit 2.6503 4.3497
Team Empire 2.6425 4.3575

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
Team Spirit 66.33% 1st 99.46%
HellRaisers 11.36% 3rd 90.00%
Natus Vincere 8.77% 4th 86.55%
Virtus.pro 6.12% 4th 82.10%
PuckChamp 2.62% 5th 66.46%
Team Unique 1.93% 6th 61.29%
AS Monaco Gambit 1.45% 6th 57.07%
Team Empire 1.43% 6th 57.06%

Division II

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
CIS Rejects 4.53165 2.46835
V-Gaming 4.39175 2.60825
Gambit-2 4.31175 2.68825
Nemiga Gaming 3.9955 3.0045
Hydra 3.92815 3.07185
Winstrike Team 3.62395 3.37605
Fantastic Five 1.9791 5.0209
B8 1.23815 5.76185

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
CIS Rejects 24.73% 3rd 96.29%
V-Gaming 20.95% 3rd 95.47%
Gambit-2 19.66% 3rd 95.03%
Nemiga Gaming 13.79% 4th 91.42%
Hydra 12.09% 4th 90.92%
Winstrike Team 8.26% 5th 86.53%
Fantastic Five 0.49% 7th 32.40%
B8 0.03% 8th 11.95%


China

Division I

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
PSG.LGD 6.00975 0.99025
Invictus Gaming 4.44335 2.55665
Team Aster 4.25705 2.74295
Royal Never Give Up 4.15925 2.84075
Vici Gaming 3.6198 3.3802
EHOME 2.6224 4.3776
LBZS 1.9492 5.0508
Phoenix Gaming 0.9392 6.0608

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
PSG.LGD 71.06% 1st 99.96%
Invictus Gaming 10.19% 3rd 97.65%
Team Aster 8.12% 3rd 96.97%
Royal Never Give Up 7.14% 4th 96.03%
Vici Gaming 2.96% 4th 91.16%
EHOME 0.43% 6th 68.97%
LBZS 0.08% 7th 39.88%
Phoenix Gaming 0.01% 8th 9.38%

Division II

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
Xtreme Gaming 5.3233 1.6767
MagMa 4.7252 2.2748
Aster.Aries 4.1783 2.8217
Sparking Arrow Gaming 3.9371 3.0629
Neptune Gaming 3.2599 3.7401
CDEC Gaming 2.662 4.338
Ybb Gaming 2.268 4.732
ShenZen 1.6462 5.3538

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
Xtreme Gaming 47.41% 2nd 99.33%
MagMa 24.64% 2nd 97.65%
Aster.Aries 12.90% 3rd 93.81%
Sparking Arrow Gaming 9.37% 4th 91.65%
Neptune Gaming 3.65% 5th 80.07%
CDEC Gaming 1.35% 6th 63.00%
Ybb Gaming 0.56% 7th 48.34%
ShenZen 0.13% 7th 26.15%


Southeast Asia

Division I

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
BOOM Esports 5.01765 1.98235
Motivate.Trust Gaming 4.4069 2.5931
Team SMG 4.2592 2.7408
T1 4.0751 2.9249
Fnatic 3.8574 3.1426
OB Esports x Neon 2.4353 4.5647
TNC Predator 2.06525 4.93475
Execration 1.8832 5.1168

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
BOOM Esports 38.61% 2nd 98.58%
Motivate.Trust Gaming 19.56% 3rd 95.62%
Team SMG 16.48% 3rd 94.34%
T1 13.38% 4th 92.65%
Fnatic 10.32% 4th 89.94%
OB Esports x Neon 0.94% 6th 55.01%
TNC Predator 0.41% 7th 40.00%
Execration 0.29% 7th 33.87%

Division II

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
Polaris Esports 4.9291 2.0709
Nigma Galaxy SEA 4.8756 2.1244
Talon Esports 4.6201 2.3799
Ragdoll 4.4491 2.5509
Lilgun 2.88405 4.11595
Army Geniuses 2.87955 4.12045
496 Gaming 1.8222 5.1778
InterActive Philippines 1.5403 5.4597

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
Polaris Esports 29.74% 2nd 98.92%
Nigma Galaxy SEA 28.34% 2nd 98.57%
Talon Esports 21.19% 3rd 97.67%
Ragdoll 17.27% 3rd 96.79%
Lilgun 1.69% 6th 74.30%
Army Geniuses 1.58% 6th 73.92%
496 Gaming 0.11% 7th 34.76%
InterActive Philippines 0.07% 7th 25.06%


North America

Division I

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
Undying 5.6299 1.3701
Evil Geniuses 4.7517 2.2483
4 Zoomers 4.67015 2.32985
Quincy Crew 3.9932 3.0068
simply TOOBASED 2.5742 4.4258
D2 Hustlers 2.3911 4.6089
Black N Yellow 2.02965 4.97035
Arkosh Gaming 1.9601 5.0399

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
Undying 53.74% 1st 99.81%
Evil Geniuses 20.09% 3rd 98.33%
4 Zoomers 17.46% 3rd 98.18%
Quincy Crew 7.38% 4th 93.67%
simply TOOBASED 0.63% 6th 64.72%
D2 Hustlers 0.40% 6th 58.35%
Black N Yellow 0.18% 7th 44.76%
Arkosh Gaming 0.14% 7th 42.16%

Division II

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
The Cut 4.3511 2.6489
Team DogChamp 4.1465 2.8535
KBU.US 4.1267 2.8733
Team Magnus 3.77055 3.22945
5RATFORCESTAFF 3.3606 3.6394
5ManMidas 3.11205 3.88795
Electronic Boys 2.90075 4.09925
Felt 2.23175 4.76825

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
The Cut 25.88% 3rd 92.24%
Team DogChamp 21.08% 3rd 89.92%
KBU.US 20.40% 3rd 89.81%
Team Magnus 13.53% 4th 83.82%
5RATFORCESTAFF 7.92% 5th 75.06%
5ManMidas 5.81% 5th 68.40%
Electronic Boys 4.08% 6th 61.71%
Felt 1.31% 7th 39.04%


South America

Division I

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
Thunder Predator 5.3423 1.6577
Infamous 4.78095 2.21905
Lava BestPc 3.76025 3.23975
beastcoast 3.5909 3.4091
Hokori 3.41475 3.58525
NoPing e-sports 2.9258 4.0742
King Of Kings 2.2394 4.7606
SG e-sports 1.94565 5.05435

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
Thunder Predator 50.46% 1st 99.16%
Infamous 27.45% 2nd 97.36%
Lava BestPc 8.03% 4th 87.74%
beastcoast 6.22% 4th 84.98%
Hokori 4.86% 5th 81.34%
NoPing e-sports 2.17% 6th 69.47%
King Of Kings 0.56% 7th 44.92%
SG e-sports 0.26% 7th 35.02%

Division II

Expected record:

Team Name Wins Losses
Our Way 5.5986 1.4014
Infinity Esports 5.413 1.587
Balrogs 4.4828 2.5172
Omega Gaming 3.35125 3.64875
Gorillaz-Pride 3.2218 3.7782
Team Unknown 2.20995 4.79005
Interitus 2.158 4.842
Inverse 1.5646 5.4354

Placement probabilities:

Team Name % 1st Place Median Place % Top 6
Our Way 46.88% 2nd 99.83%
Infinity Esports 37.28% 2nd 99.69%
Balrogs 11.58% 3rd 97.69%
Omega Gaming 2.15% 5th 86.18%
Gorillaz-Pride 1.74% 5th 83.78%
Team Unknown 0.21% 6th 52.81%
Interitus 0.14% 6th 51.52%
Inverse 0.03% 7th 28.49%


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