The International 10 - Group A Day Two Matches
Welcome to my predictions for day two of The International 10! For the four days of group stages, I'll continue to aggregate match predictions and bet suggestions instead of flooding Twitter with a dozen posts.
Refer to the summary table at the top, or scroll down to see match specifics if you want a more comprehensive breakdown.
Predictions and bet suggestions
| Date | Team | Opponent | Odds | Win% | Win% Implied (norm) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-08 04:00AM | T1 | Virtus.pro | 4.28 | 19.08% | 21.08% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-08 04:00AM | Alliance | Evil Geniuses | 4 | 19.29% | 22.57% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-08 04:00AM | Team Aster | OG | 3.21 | 38.29% | 28.11% | Bet 10.36% on Aster vs OG |
| 2021-10-08 04:00AM | DRAW | (Invictus Gaming v Thunder Predator) | 2.6 | 43.89% | 34.66% | Bet 8.83% on DRAW vs (iG v ThunderP) |
| 2021-10-08 08:00AM | Undying | Thunder Predator | 2.53 | 47.79% | 35.68% | Bet 13.67% on UND vs ThunderP |
| 2021-10-08 08:00AM | Invictus Gaming | Virtus.pro | 4.93 | 21.72% | 18.32% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-08 08:00AM | Team Aster | Alliance | 2.46 | 39.05% | 36.63% | No Bet |
| 2021-10-08 08:00AM | DRAW | (OG v T1) | 2.71 | 44.75% | 33.33% | Bet 12.44% on DRAW vs (OG v T1) |
Individual matches
OG v Team Aster
| metric | OG | draw | Team Aster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.84 (+184) | 2.25 (+125) | 3.21 (+221) |
| Implied Win Probability | 35.21% | 44.44% | 31.15% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 31.78% | 40.11% | 28.11% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 18.46% | 43.26% | 38.29% |
| Expected Value | -0.6178 | -0.1392 | 0.0685 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +643 | Bet @ odds > +161 | Bet 10.36% |
Virtus.pro v T1
| metric | Virtus.pro | draw | T1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.08 (+108) | 2.54 (+154) | 4.28 (+328) |
| Implied Win Probability | 48.08% | 39.37% | 23.36% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 43.39% | 35.53% | 21.08% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 37.40% | 43.51% | 19.08% |
| Expected Value | -0.326 | -0.0218 | -0.3972 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +209 | Bet @ odds > +160 | Bet @ odds > +610 |
Evil Geniuses v Alliance
| metric | Evil Geniuses | draw | Alliance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.2 (+120) | 2.48 (+148) | 4 (+300) |
| Implied Win Probability | 45.45% | 40.32% | 25.00% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 41.03% | 36.40% | 22.57% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 37.12% | 43.59% | 19.29% |
| Expected Value | -0.2933 | -0.043 | -0.4285 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +211 | Bet @ odds > +159 | Bet @ odds > +600 |
Invictus Gaming v Thunder Predator
| metric | Invictus Gaming | draw | Thunder Predator |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 1.97 (-103) | 2.6 (+160) | 4.6 (+360) |
| Implied Win Probability | 50.76% | 38.46% | 21.74% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 45.75% | 34.66% | 19.59% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 35.95% | 43.89% | 20.15% |
| Expected Value | -0.3902 | 0.0112 | -0.3029 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +223 | Bet 8.83% | Bet @ odds > +560 |
Invictus Gaming v Virtus.pro
| metric | Invictus Gaming | draw | Virtus.pro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 4.93 (+393) | 2.3 (+130) | 2.13 (+113) |
| Implied Win Probability | 20.28% | 43.48% | 46.95% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 18.32% | 39.27% | 42.41% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 21.72% | 44.34% | 33.94% |
| Expected Value | -0.1758 | -0.0952 | -0.3835 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +498 | Bet @ odds > +154 | Bet @ odds > +245 |
Team Aster v Alliance
| metric | Team Aster | draw | Alliance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.46 (+146) | 2.4 (+140) | 3.49 (+249) |
| Implied Win Probability | 40.65% | 41.67% | 28.65% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 36.63% | 37.55% | 25.82% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 39.05% | 43.02% | 17.92% |
| Expected Value | -0.1623 | -0.0875 | -0.5489 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +194 | Bet @ odds > +163 | Bet @ odds > +674 |
Undying v Thunder Predator
| metric | Undying | draw | Thunder Predator |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.53 (+153) | 2.4 (+140) | 3.38 (+238) |
| Implied Win Probability | 39.53% | 41.67% | 29.59% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 35.68% | 37.61% | 26.71% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 47.79% | 39.53% | 12.67% |
| Expected Value | 0.0827 | -0.1712 | -0.7406 |
| Bet Size | Bet 13.67% | Bet @ odds > +190 | Bet @ odds > +1203 |
OG v T1
| metric | OG | draw | T1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Odds | 2.4 (+140) | 2.71 (+171) | 3.11 (+211) |
| Implied Win Probability | 41.67% | 36.90% | 32.15% |
| Implied Win (Normalized) | 37.63% | 33.33% | 29.04% |
| Calculated Win Probability | 23.88% | 44.75% | 31.37% |
| Expected Value | -0.547 | 0.0772 | -0.1798 |
| Bet Size | Bet @ odds > +430 | Bet 12.44% | Bet @ odds > +279 |
You can also find all of these suggestions on our suggested bets page, which will stay up-to-date as the tournament progresses!
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