Last but not least, Group D finishes off the League of Legends World Championship group stage tomorrow. This group has two two-way ties so far, so there are a lot more ways it could play out.
After the first six games, here is each team's record:
Gen.G and LNG Esports are tied at 2-1 records, while MAD Lions and Team Liquid are 1-2. This group was the most evenly matched across all four teams in my original prediction, and is the only group to have had any tied records at their midpoint (every other group had 0-1-2-3 wins after the first six games). Between the close records so far, and the close spread of power across the four teams, this group could really go anywhere.
Re-simulating the last six games of this group and adding them to each team's current record, we can find the most likely outcomes of this group.
My original prediction had estimated the following expected records:
The top three teams differ from each other by a tenth of a win, on average, and even TL in fourth wasn't too far behind, and closer to a 3-3 record than anything else. So far, things have lined up with expectations: the top two teams in my prediction are 2-1, and the bottom two are 1-2. This is as close as those first six games could get.
Here are the new expected record for each team, taking into account their current records as well as any changes in the model (since we've got more data on how these teams play):
Same overall order, with total wins shifted slightly up or down by the fact that some games have already been played. For example, LNG would have had, on average, 1.6 wins in their first three games. Since they ended up with two, their total expectation now got shifted up by that 0.4 difference.
All this really does is create a slightly wider divide between the top and bottom two teams - with so few games played, a one-win advantage is, statistically speaking, quite significant.
We can also map out the probability of each possible record that each team can achieve:
Most likely outcomes for each team?
- LNG Esports: 4-2
- Gen.G: 4-2
- MAD Lions: 2-4
- Team Liquid: 2-4
While those are the most likely outcomes for each team, each team's second most likely outcome is the same: 3-3. I wouldn't necessarily count on it, but there's a very real chance of a four-way tie here.
With so much potential for ties (either a four-way 3-3 tie, or a tie between two 4-2 teams), this group is ripe for some tiebreakers. Simulating those on top of expected records, we can see each team's expected placement. Let's start with teams' probabilities of winning this group:
|Team Name||% 1st Place||Median Place|
LNG and GEN are both very viable first-place contenders, with LNG taking a slight edge on average. The bottom teams are still only one win behind and not horribly unfavored in any specific matchups, so they both have a chance to win overall, unlike the bottom teams in all of the other groups (yes, yes, Cloud9 stuff can happen, but even they didn't actually win the group).
Right now, it's looking like the two teams to move on to the Knockout bracket will be LNG and GEN. What chance do the other teams have?
|Team Name||% Top 2|
38% and 20%, respectively. Those are fairly good odds, all things considered. The top two are exactly LNG and GEN 44.6% of the time, and include at least one of those teams 96.6% of the time, so MAD and TL still have some possible avenues out of groups (but likely not together).
Finally, here is the distribution of each team's possible placements:
Interestingly, GEN are more likely to place first than any other individual place, but still less likely than LNG are to actually place first. Similarly, the most likely place for either of MAD or TL is fourth.
My initial claim was that this would be the most even group, and I still believe that. All four teams have a very real chance to make it to the knockout stage, and a few key upsets can completely change the relative rankings in this group.
The two teams with 2-1 records currently, Gen.G and LNG Esports, are the most likely to move on - both because they are generally stronger teams and because they're currently up a win on the others. There's a 44.6% chance that exactly those two teams move on. That's more likely than any other combination, but it still means there's a 55.4% chance that one of the other two teams pushes through. All in all, tomorrow should be a wild ride of emotions, hope, and ultimately disappointment for some.
As always, keep up with our suggested bets to see how our predictions stack up against the market, and where we would suggest staking your money.
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