Tomorrow is all about Group C of the League of Legends World Championship. Let's take a look at where they currently stand and what's most likely to happen tomorrow.
After the first six games, here is each team's record:
|Royal Never Give Up||3||0|
|Hanwha Life Esports||1||2|
The number two European seed going into the tournament, Fnatic, have yet to pick up a single win. I had predicted them to be the second strongest team in this group, though quite close to PSG Talon, so this was definitely an unexpected turn. The absence of their bot laner, Elias "Upset" Lipp, has certainly hurt their performance, and my original prediction was done without this information. However, my model still would not have expected such a drastic change in their prospects.
Meanwhile, Royal Never Give Up, my number one ranked team at the start, are 3-0 as expected.
I simulated the outcomes of the last six games to be played in this group, and combined them with each team's current record to see the most likely outcomes of this group.
I had originally predicted the following expected records:
|Royal Never Give Up||3.89464||2.10536|
|Hanwha Life Esports||2.42418||3.57582|
Even as the potentially strongest team at the tournament, I expected RNG to face some resistance. With three wins already, they're fairly likely to get above four in total, though the chance for two upsets is always there.
We've already talked about Fnatic. If we were to redistribute their wins, the other two teams are roughly on track for expectations. Obviously by the end PSG and HLE will differ by more than 0.3 wins (since we're comparing expected values, which can be non-integer, to actual results), but a 4-2 and 3-3 record look plausible.
Here are the new expected record for each team:
|Royal Never Give Up||5.0616||0.9384|
|Hanwha Life Esports||2.37704||3.62296|
Each team has some chance to beat RNG, and together they combine into roughly one expected loss for RNG for a pretty likely 5-1 record.
HLE now look stronger than PSG, and are incrementally expected to do just a fraction of a win better, but starting from a lower point they'll have to fight hard to snatch that second place.
Fnatic are probably going to grab one win, but even that isn't a guarantee.
We can also map out the probability of each possible record that each team can achieve:
Most likely outcomes for each team?
- Royal Never Give Up: 5-1
- PSG Talon: 3-3
- Hanwha Life Esports: 2-4
- Fnatic: 1-5
Keep in mind that these are the most likely outcomes for each team individually. This isn't actually a possible configuration. The most likely overall outcome is that PSG and HLE either go 4-2 and 2-4, or 3-3 and 3-3.
Also, while RNG are most likely to end up with a 5-1 record, they have over a 30% chance of finishing with a perfect 6-0 and joining DWG KIA in that honor.
Yet another group with a 0-1-2-3 spread of wins in the first half; at least Group D will spice it up. Tiebreakers may still happen in this group, most likely between PSG and HLE for second place. I wouldn't count on a three-way tie like we saw in Group A, unless Fnatic pull a Cloud9 and find two or three wins out of nowhere. Simulating both records and appropriate tiebreakers, here's how likely each team is to win this group:
|Team Name||% 1st Place||Median Place|
|Royal Never Give Up||79.33%||1st|
|Hanwha Life Esports||4.46%||3rd|
RNG are all but guaranteed to place first, and PSG are the only team with somewhat of a shot at stealing the crown.
The fight for second place is still on, however. Second is good enough to move on out of groups. Here's how each team's chances to take either of the top two spots shake out:
|Team Name||% Top 2|
|Royal Never Give Up||96.42%|
|Hanwha Life Esports||24.62%|
HLE have a one-in-four chance of squeezing past PSG (likely on some tiebreakers), which aren't terrible odds. Even FNC aren't completely out of the running, though they would almost certainly have to win all three games and then either hope that RNG win out and HLE beat PSG, or face some tiebreakers as well.
For good measure, here is the distribution of each team's possible placements:
The expected spikes are there, with each team being most likely to finish in a different place.
Before group play had started, I had claimed that RNG were the strongest team in this group. Fnatic (with their original roster) looked to be second strongest, with PSG Talon breathing on their neck. Hanwha Life Esports looked to be the weakest going in, but even they weren't very far behind.
With Louis "Bean" Schimtz standing in for FNC's bot laner, Upset, they've struggled to find their footing. Shifting them down in the rankings, the other teams line up as expected. HLE and PSG look pretty evenly matched right now, but with PSG up by one win in the first half, their chances of making it through to the bracket are significantly higher. Still, as we saw in Group A, literally anything can happen.
As always, keep up with our suggested bets to see how our predictions stack up against the market, and where we would suggest staking your money.
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