The second half of the League of Legends World Championship Group Stage continues with Group B. They play out the rest of their matches tomorrow, so let's check in on where they stand and see what's likely to happen going forward.
Here is each team's current record, after the first six games in the group:
The first Japanese team to qualify for the Worlds Group Stage, DetonatioN FocusMe, have had a rough start to the group stage. EDward Gaming, on the other hand, are sitting right where expected with a 3-0 record. I had predicted that T1 and 100 Thieves would be fairly evenly matched. Right now T1 are looking stronger, but we're only halfway through this stage and they'll have a chance to face each other again tomorrow.
With the first half of games in this group played, I can simulate the outcomes of the second half and combine it with each team's current record to see where teams are likely to end up.
I had originally predicted the following expected records:
With EDG already at three wins, they're almost certainly going to end up at higher than four. That original estimate had included some possibility of upsets in the first three games. They could have happened, but didn't, so obviously the expectation going forward changes. That's just how statistics works.
DFM are also below par - they would have averaged a bit over one upset in the first half. Not getting that upset is hardly implausible, but certainly unfortunate for them, and they're looking at a Cloud9-level set of circumstances to break into a tiebreaker scenario.
Here's the new expected record for each team:
EDG should win two more, most likely. Both T1 and 100T have a reasonable shot at beating them, so between those two games there's close to one loss for EDG, on average.
Up a game over 100T, T1 are looking to be in a much stronger position to make it past the group stage. Their game tomorrow against each other will probably define their relative standing.
DFM, meanwhile, have three unfavored matchups that together add up to one expected win, and even that is hardly guaranteed.
We can also map out the probability of each possible record that each team can achieve:
Most likely outcomes for each team?
- EDward Gaming: 5-1
- T1: 4-2
- 100 Thieves: 2-4
- DetonatioN FocusMe: 1-5
With a 0-1-2-3 spread of wins so far, there's a good chance that tiebreakers won't come into play, and so records are basically synonymous with placement. If 100T beat T1 and all other matches go as expected (EDG beat both of them, DFM lose to both of them), we'll be looking at a tiebreaker between those two teams, and the loser will get eliminated from the tournament. Simulating both records and tiebreakers, here's how likely each team is to win this group:
|% 1st Place
EDG are all but guaranteed to place first, and realistically if they don't, the only other team that could take that spot is T1.
DFM have a one-in-three-thousand chance, apparently. They would have to win every one of their games, each other team to win and lose accordingly to create a 3-3 four-way tie, and then continue winning all of their games. It's fun to dream, but that's all that this really is.
EDG may be a lock for first place, but the top two teams move on. Those two teams are looking very likely to be EDG and T1, but let's see the numbers:
|% Top 2
100T still have a one-in-five chance at beating out T1, which is higher than some upsets we've seen so far this tournament, but still not great.
For good measure, here is the distribution of each team's possible placements:
The expected spikes are there, with each team being most likely to finish in a different place.
Before this group had started, I had claimed that EDG were the obvious favorite in this group, while T1 and 100T would look very even, and DFM would be somewhat outmatched. So far, things are pretty much in line with that prediction.
T1 are currently a game up on 100T, specifically their one win in that matchup, so they naturally have the advantage going into the second half of the round robin. If 100T can flip the script and tie up that matchup, that second slot is still anybody's.
And, finally, while we haven't seen any in this group yet, upsets can and do happen. When they do, they tend to be great for bettors. The few times you win a huge upset payout more than compensate for the many times you don't, so keep up with our suggested bets to see how our predictions stack up against the market, and where we would suggest staking your money.
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