The International 10 - Group A Day Three Matches

The International 10 group stage continues on to day three. I've aggregated all of Group A's matches in a single post.

Refer to the summary table at the top, or scroll down to see match specifics if you want a more comprehensive breakdown.


Predictions and bet suggestions

Date Team Opponent Odds Win% Win% Implied (norm) Action
2021-10-09 02:00AM Undying Alliance 4.02 43.35% 22.47% Bet 24.59% on UND vs [A]
2021-10-09 02:00AM Evil Geniuses OG 2.3 39.39% 39.21% No Bet
2021-10-09 02:00AM Thunder Predator Virtus.pro 4.99 14.80% 18.06% No Bet
2021-10-09 02:00AM Team Aster T1 2.58 33.58% 34.98% No Bet
2021-10-09 06:00AM T1 Alliance 3.02 33.49% 29.92% No Bet
2021-10-09 06:00AM Undying OG 4.98 44.00% 18.11% Bet 29.94% on UND vs OG
2021-10-09 06:00AM Team Aster Invictus Gaming 2.62 34.29% 34.45% No Bet
2021-10-09 06:00AM DRAW (Evil Geniuses v Thunder Predator) 2.97 42.25% 30.36% Bet 12.94% on DRAW vs (EG v ThunderP)
2021-10-09 10:00AM Undying T1 3.56 38.65% 25.37% Bet 14.69% on UND vs T1
2021-10-09 10:00AM Evil Geniuses Virtus.pro 3.21 26.52% 28.09% No Bet
2021-10-09 10:00AM Alliance Invictus Gaming 3.83 23.62% 23.55% No Bet
2021-10-09 10:00AM Thunder Predator Team Aster 4.53 16.91% 19.94% No Bet


Individual matches

Evil Geniuses v OG

metric Evil Geniuses draw OG
Market Odds 2.3 (+130) 2.45 (+145) 3.76 (+276)
Implied Win Probability 43.48% 40.82% 26.60%
Implied Win (Normalized) 39.21% 36.81% 23.98%
Calculated Win Probability 39.39% 42.92% 17.70%
Expected Value -0.2091 -0.0711 -0.5225
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +191 Bet @ odds > +164 Bet @ odds > +688

Team Aster v T1

metric Team Aster draw T1
Market Odds 2.58 (+158) 2.39 (+139) 3.31 (+231)
Implied Win Probability 38.76% 41.84% 30.21%
Implied Win (Normalized) 34.98% 37.76% 27.26%
Calculated Win Probability 33.58% 44.41% 22.02%
Expected Value -0.2627 -0.0582 -0.4368
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +250 Bet @ odds > +154 Bet @ odds > +488

Undying v Alliance

metric Undying draw Alliance
Market Odds 4.02 (+302) 2.49 (+149) 2.19 (+119)
Implied Win Probability 24.88% 40.16% 45.66%
Implied Win (Normalized) 22.47% 36.28% 41.25%
Calculated Win Probability 43.35% 41.48% 15.17%
Expected Value 0.5416 -0.0916 -0.7773
Bet Size Bet 24.59% Bet @ odds > +174 Bet @ odds > +883

Virtus.pro v Thunder Predator

metric Virtus.pro draw Thunder Predator
Market Odds 1.86 (-116) 2.69 (+169) 4.99 (+399)
Implied Win Probability 53.76% 37.17% 20.04%
Implied Win (Normalized) 48.45% 33.50% 18.06%
Calculated Win Probability 43.98% 41.23% 14.80%
Expected Value -0.2751 -0.0255 -0.5111
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +157 Bet @ odds > +176 Bet @ odds > +921

OG v Undying

metric OG draw Undying
Market Odds 1.98 (-102) 2.48 (+148) 4.98 (+398)
Implied Win Probability 50.51% 40.32% 20.08%
Implied Win (Normalized) 45.54% 36.36% 18.11%
Calculated Win Probability 14.78% 41.21% 44.00%
Expected Value -0.8063 -0.1019 0.9424
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +922 Bet @ odds > +176 Bet 29.94%

Invictus Gaming v Team Aster

metric Invictus Gaming draw Team Aster
Market Odds 3.25 (+225) 2.39 (+139) 2.62 (+162)
Implied Win Probability 30.77% 41.84% 38.17%
Implied Win (Normalized) 27.78% 37.77% 34.45%
Calculated Win Probability 21.44% 44.27% 34.29%
Expected Value -0.4656 -0.0615 -0.2326
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +508 Bet @ odds > +155 Bet @ odds > +241

T1 v Alliance

metric T1 draw Alliance
Market Odds 3.02 (+202) 2.25 (+125) 3.02 (+202)
Implied Win Probability 33.11% 44.44% 33.11%
Implied Win (Normalized) 29.92% 40.16% 29.92%
Calculated Win Probability 33.49% 44.42% 22.09%
Expected Value -0.1396 -0.113 -0.484
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +251 Bet @ odds > +154 Bet @ odds > +485

Evil Geniuses v Thunder Predator

metric Evil Geniuses draw Thunder Predator
Market Odds 1.65 (-154) 2.97 (+197) 6.02 (+502)
Implied Win Probability 60.61% 33.67% 16.61%
Implied Win (Normalized) 54.66% 30.36% 14.98%
Calculated Win Probability 41.32% 42.25% 16.43%
Expected Value -0.4007 0.1064 -0.3121
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +175 Bet 12.94% Bet @ odds > +775

Evil Geniuses v Virtus.pro

metric Evil Geniuses draw Virtus.pro
Market Odds 3.21 (+221) 2.38 (+138) 2.65 (+165)
Implied Win Probability 31.15% 42.02% 37.74%
Implied Win (Normalized) 28.09% 37.89% 34.03%
Calculated Win Probability 26.52% 44.98% 28.50%
Expected Value -0.3093 -0.0484 -0.3773
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +365 Bet @ odds > +150 Bet @ odds > +326

Invictus Gaming v Alliance

metric Invictus Gaming draw Alliance
Market Odds 2.6 (+160) 2.16 (+116) 3.83 (+283)
Implied Win Probability 38.46% 46.30% 26.11%
Implied Win (Normalized) 34.69% 41.76% 23.55%
Calculated Win Probability 31.66% 44.71% 23.62%
Expected Value -0.3067 -0.1422 -0.2868
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +275 Bet @ odds > +152 Bet @ odds > +437

T1 v Undying

metric T1 draw Undying
Market Odds 2.42 (+142) 2.42 (+142) 3.56 (+256)
Implied Win Probability 41.32% 41.32% 28.09%
Implied Win (Normalized) 37.32% 37.32% 25.37%
Calculated Win Probability 18.20% 43.15% 38.65%
Expected Value -0.6805 -0.0768 0.198
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +657 Bet @ odds > +162 Bet 14.69%

Team Aster v Thunder Predator

metric Team Aster draw Thunder Predator
Market Odds 2.13 (+113) 2.4 (+140) 4.53 (+353)
Implied Win Probability 46.95% 41.67% 22.08%
Implied Win (Normalized) 42.41% 37.64% 19.94%
Calculated Win Probability 40.57% 42.52% 16.91%
Expected Value -0.2423 -0.0996 -0.4605
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +181 Bet @ odds > +167 Bet @ odds > +740


You can also find all of these suggestions on our suggested bets page, which will stay up-to-date as the tournament progresses!

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