The International 10 - Group A Day Two Matches

Welcome to my predictions for day two of The International 10! For the four days of group stages, I'll continue to aggregate match predictions and bet suggestions instead of flooding Twitter with a dozen posts.

Refer to the summary table at the top, or scroll down to see match specifics if you want a more comprehensive breakdown.


Predictions and bet suggestions

Date Team Opponent Odds Win% Win% Implied (norm) Action
2021-10-08 04:00AM T1 Virtus.pro 4.28 19.08% 21.08% No Bet
2021-10-08 04:00AM Alliance Evil Geniuses 4 19.29% 22.57% No Bet
2021-10-08 04:00AM Team Aster OG 3.21 38.29% 28.11% Bet 10.36% on Aster vs OG
2021-10-08 04:00AM DRAW (Invictus Gaming v Thunder Predator) 2.6 43.89% 34.66% Bet 8.83% on DRAW vs (iG v ThunderP)
2021-10-08 08:00AM Undying Thunder Predator 2.53 47.79% 35.68% Bet 13.67% on UND vs ThunderP
2021-10-08 08:00AM Invictus Gaming Virtus.pro 4.93 21.72% 18.32% No Bet
2021-10-08 08:00AM Team Aster Alliance 2.46 39.05% 36.63% No Bet
2021-10-08 08:00AM DRAW (OG v T1) 2.71 44.75% 33.33% Bet 12.44% on DRAW vs (OG v T1)

Individual matches

OG v Team Aster

metric OG draw Team Aster
Market Odds 2.84 (+184) 2.25 (+125) 3.21 (+221)
Implied Win Probability 35.21% 44.44% 31.15%
Implied Win (Normalized) 31.78% 40.11% 28.11%
Calculated Win Probability 18.46% 43.26% 38.29%
Expected Value -0.6178 -0.1392 0.0685
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +643 Bet @ odds > +161 Bet 10.36%

Virtus.pro v T1

metric Virtus.pro draw T1
Market Odds 2.08 (+108) 2.54 (+154) 4.28 (+328)
Implied Win Probability 48.08% 39.37% 23.36%
Implied Win (Normalized) 43.39% 35.53% 21.08%
Calculated Win Probability 37.40% 43.51% 19.08%
Expected Value -0.326 -0.0218 -0.3972
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +209 Bet @ odds > +160 Bet @ odds > +610

Evil Geniuses v Alliance

metric Evil Geniuses draw Alliance
Market Odds 2.2 (+120) 2.48 (+148) 4 (+300)
Implied Win Probability 45.45% 40.32% 25.00%
Implied Win (Normalized) 41.03% 36.40% 22.57%
Calculated Win Probability 37.12% 43.59% 19.29%
Expected Value -0.2933 -0.043 -0.4285
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +211 Bet @ odds > +159 Bet @ odds > +600

Invictus Gaming v Thunder Predator

metric Invictus Gaming draw Thunder Predator
Market Odds 1.97 (-103) 2.6 (+160) 4.6 (+360)
Implied Win Probability 50.76% 38.46% 21.74%
Implied Win (Normalized) 45.75% 34.66% 19.59%
Calculated Win Probability 35.95% 43.89% 20.15%
Expected Value -0.3902 0.0112 -0.3029
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +223 Bet 8.83% Bet @ odds > +560

Invictus Gaming v Virtus.pro

metric Invictus Gaming draw Virtus.pro
Market Odds 4.93 (+393) 2.3 (+130) 2.13 (+113)
Implied Win Probability 20.28% 43.48% 46.95%
Implied Win (Normalized) 18.32% 39.27% 42.41%
Calculated Win Probability 21.72% 44.34% 33.94%
Expected Value -0.1758 -0.0952 -0.3835
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +498 Bet @ odds > +154 Bet @ odds > +245

Team Aster v Alliance

metric Team Aster draw Alliance
Market Odds 2.46 (+146) 2.4 (+140) 3.49 (+249)
Implied Win Probability 40.65% 41.67% 28.65%
Implied Win (Normalized) 36.63% 37.55% 25.82%
Calculated Win Probability 39.05% 43.02% 17.92%
Expected Value -0.1623 -0.0875 -0.5489
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +194 Bet @ odds > +163 Bet @ odds > +674

Undying v Thunder Predator

metric Undying draw Thunder Predator
Market Odds 2.53 (+153) 2.4 (+140) 3.38 (+238)
Implied Win Probability 39.53% 41.67% 29.59%
Implied Win (Normalized) 35.68% 37.61% 26.71%
Calculated Win Probability 47.79% 39.53% 12.67%
Expected Value 0.0827 -0.1712 -0.7406
Bet Size Bet 13.67% Bet @ odds > +190 Bet @ odds > +1203

OG v T1

metric OG draw T1
Market Odds 2.4 (+140) 2.71 (+171) 3.11 (+211)
Implied Win Probability 41.67% 36.90% 32.15%
Implied Win (Normalized) 37.63% 33.33% 29.04%
Calculated Win Probability 23.88% 44.75% 31.37%
Expected Value -0.547 0.0772 -0.1798
Bet Size Bet @ odds > +430 Bet 12.44% Bet @ odds > +279


You can also find all of these suggestions on our suggested bets page, which will stay up-to-date as the tournament progresses!

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